Pilot stage
Standard Cohort Study
Coverage 312 / 350
Updated 3/15/2025, 2:00 PM
High-risk share
27%
Borrowers flagged for 30–60d pre-default pattern
Projected impact
11–18%
Charge-off reduction scenario
LIVE DATA
Last Updated
3/15/2025, 2:00:00 PM
Next Refresh
60m 0s
Auto-refresh every 60m
Risk distribution
Segment level 30 / 60 day risk
Behavior pressure vs delinquency
12-week stability curve
Stress inflection precedes delinquency rise by ~2.5 weeks · Enables 30–60d pre-default interventions
Borrower radar
High-risk entities · anonymized IDs
| Borrower | Segment | Risk bucket | Score | Horizon | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRW-0314 | Contractor | High | 76% | 30d | Avoidance patternImpulse spike |
| BRW-0186 | Seasonal | Medium | 66% | 60d | Sentiment dropBudget fatigue |
| BRW-0291 | Mining | Low | 38% | 60d | Stable incomeProactive engagement |
| BRW-0425 | Retail | High | 82% | 30d | Cash flow volatilityLate payment history |
| BRW-0568 | Healthcare | Low | 28% | 90d | Consistent incomeHigh savings rate |
| BRW-0712 | Transportation | Medium | 58% | 60d | Fuel cost stressMaintenance expenses |
| BRW-0893 | Contractor | High | 71% | 30d | Project delaysClient payment gaps |
| BRW-1024 | Mining | Medium | 54% | 60d | Shift reductionEconomic uncertainty |
| BRW-1156 | Seasonal | Low | 32% | 90d | Early planningSavings buffer |
| BRW-1289 | Retail | Medium | 62% | 60d | Commission variabilitySchedule changes |
| BRW-1407 | Healthcare | Low | 24% | 90d | Overtime opportunitiesStable employer |
| BRW-1533 | Transportation | High | 79% | 30d | Vehicle breakdownInsurance spike |
| BRW-1661 | Contractor | Low | 35% | 90d | Diversified clientsStrong pipeline |
| BRW-1798 | Mining | High | 84% | 30d | Industry downturnOvertime cut |
| BRW-1925 | Seasonal | Medium | 68% | 60d | Off-season approachingLow reserves |
| BRW-2047 | Retail | Low | 29% | 90d | Manager promotionBonus achieved |
| BRW-2173 | Healthcare | Medium | 56% | 60d | Student loan burdenChildcare costs |
| BRW-2304 | Transportation | Low | 41% | 90d | New contract signedRoute efficiency |
Borrower explorer
BRW-0314
Contractor segment · Behavioral Monitoring Pilot
AI AWARENESS LAYER
Risk trajectory (30d vs 60d)
Nocturnal anxiety pattern
2/16/2025
ML model detected late-night session cluster (2-4 AM), stress indicator +0.12
Income uncertainty detected
2/19/2025
NLP analysis flagged cash flow concern keywords, sentiment score dropped to -0.34
Partial payment risk signal
2/23/2025
AI flagged incomplete payment pattern, 60-day default probability increased to 0.67
Avoidance behavior detected
2/27/2025
Behavioral model identified session abandonment pattern (3 instances, no action taken)
Cash liquidity stress spike
3/2/2025
Transaction pattern analysis shows irregular withdrawal frequency (+340% vs baseline)
Impulse spending cluster
3/4/2025
AI detected micro-transaction burst, financial control score decreased to 0.31
Anxiety escalation confirmed
3/7/2025
Sentiment analysis shows stress language intensity +0.45, urgency keywords detected
Critical: Overdraft risk trigger
3/10/2025
Risk engine flagged balance-exceeding attempt, immediate intervention recommended
Financial distress peak
3/11/2025
NLP model detected high-stress vocabulary cluster, emotional distress score: -0.82
Weekend impulse pattern
3/14/2025
Behavioral analysis identified discretionary surge (+45%), self-control erosion detected
Recommended interventions
Payment plan restructure
Offer flexible payment schedule aligned with project income
Expected stress -15%
Financial counseling
Connect with budgeting specialist for contractors
Charge-off risk -10%
Cash flow bridge loan
Short-term micro-loan to cover gap between projects
Expected stress -12%
SMS payment reminder
Send gentle reminders 3 days before due date with payment link
Payment compliance +18%
Income smoothing workshop
Online course for managing irregular contractor income
Long-term stability +14%
Cohort stability study
Stress vs delinquency windows
Contractor cohort
41%
Avg stress now
9%
Delinquency
Stress inflection precedes delinquency by 1.8 weeks.
Mining cohort
58%
Avg stress now
16%
Delinquency
Stress inflection precedes delinquency by 3.1 weeks.
ROI projection
Charge-off drop from 19% → 12%
Modeled on $42,000,000 book · runway 9 months.
Intervention lab
What nudges unlocked stability
Intervention impact
SMS prompt
184 runs
7%
Stress delta
62%
Follow-through
In-app nudge
233 runs
4%
Stress delta
48%
Follow-through
Call center
71 runs
12%
Stress delta
71%
Follow-through
Live anomaly radar
Night activity spike
12 borrowers showed nocturnal binge behavior after paycheck
Severity: high
Sentiment cliff
Seasonal cohort sentiment dropped 18pts post-holiday
Severity: medium
Impact modeling
ROI projection simulator
Modeled loss reduction
$2,940,000
Extending Syval guardrails to the full $ 42,000,000 book.
Baseline charge-off
19.0%
Projected after Syval
12.0%
Runway covered
9 mo